INPROFORUM 2017

The Czech Republic Farmland Fund Balance Modeling Considering the Arable Land Declines
Radka Procházková, Marie Prášilová

Language: en
Last modified: 2018-04-17

Abstract


The agricultural land fund is an irreplaceable production factor being the principal component of the environment. Cultivated farmland area in the Czech Republic is decreasing continually. The question of self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs production is important for every country, hence the most efficient use possible, of the farmland fund, too. Foodstuffs and feed product- ion depends upon the land area per capita of the population, available to the State, upon the farmland quality or upon agriculture intensification. There is 0.42 ha of farmland available per capita in the Czech Republic, of which 0.30 ha is arable land. Considering insufficiency of the Czech Republic in basic foodstuffs production, a further decline of the Czech agriculture production capacities is undesirable.

The main aim of the paper is statistical analysis and modeling of the farmland fund balance in the Czech Republic. The solution is based on available databases of Czech Statistical Office, Department of Agriculture of the Czech Republic and the Eurostat. As a statistical instrument of the balances and forecasts, the adaptive time series models have been applied, the Holt model of exponential smoothing especially. A partial goal of the paper is the identification and analysis of factors causing farmland degradation and arable land area decline especially. The degradation process causes a chain reaction in most cases, and the degradations are linked to each other. Soil sealing connected with uncontrollable expansion of settlements currently is, together with erosion, the biggest problem of farmland. Over the last 50 years (since 1966) the largest decline affected the arable land, namely about 400 th. hectares.


Keywords


Arable land; agricultural land fund; farmland degradation; exponential smoothing methods; prediction; CR; EU

Full Text: PDF